Israel will not win this war. In three critical areas Hamas, followed by Hezbollah, succeeded in setting the rules of the game, and the longer the war continues, the worse their implications will be for Israel.
The first of these is the precedent that Hamas and Hezbollah created along the border with the Gaza Strip and in the north, respectively. After the October 7 massacre and the subsequent loss of personal safety, around 120,000 Israelis left their homes in the western Negev and the north to become "internally displaced" persons.
Meanwhile, it is doubtful whether the goal of destroying Hamas is attainable. At the same time, Hezbollah will remain capable of returning fire and continuing to try to infiltrate the border. As long as the fighting continues, many Israelis will be unable to return to their homes.
The second is the blow to Israeli efforts to achieve normalization with moderate Arab states, first and foremost Saudi Arabia. On the brink of the signing of a historic agreement among the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel, Hamas returned the Palestinian problem to the center of the regional and international agenda.
The more that Israel continues its brutal war in the Gaza Strip, the more pressure will be exerted on moderate Arab states to take an unequivocal stance against it that will have enduring consequences. This will severely impair Israel's hopes for the development of trade and business relations, as well as its aspiration to legitimacy vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia and its allies in the region and beyond.
The third is the hostages. The swaps that have been made so far have forced Israel to compromise with Hamas and to accede to many of the organization's interests. It is reasonable to assume that after the completion of the current deal, domestic pressure will grow to negotiate further trades in exchange for longer cease-fires and for the release of "high-value" Palestinian prisoners.
If Israel refuses, it will be forced to continue to sacrifice soldiers in a war that is unlikely to lead to more hostages being released alive, an outcome that will increase tensions within Israeli society.
It remains possible that the most optimistic scenario, in which Israel defeats Hamas within a few months and causes its rule in Gaza to collapse, will play out. However, in the new reality, responsibility for ruling the enclave and its people will fall on Israel.
But it is unlikely this violent upheaval will bring security, rather it may perpetuate a state of chronic warfare and losses of the kind familiar to us from the Gaza Strip before the 2005 disengagement and from southern Lebanon before 2000.
Therefore, the time has come to recognize that victory is not in the cards, no matter how many cruel blows we administer on Gaza and its hapless population. The bitter truth is that Hamas and Hezbollah have dragged Israel into a war they started, and we failed to prevent. Nevertheless, military operations will not succeed in changing the political reality that has been created.
What can be done, then? First, Israel must strive to resume the cease-fire, to obtain a comprehensive agreement for the release of all the hostages and to settle accounts with everyone who bears responsibility for the debacle. Afterward, we must commit to the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip in exchange for a long-term cease-fire, of around 15 years, and move to realize this promise.
Such a proposal would win support from the West, the Arab world and the Palestinian Authority. Hamas will have no choice but to join this initiative, which is similar to one its own leaders proposed in the past. The Palestinian nation is not going anywhere, and the only way to live here in security is by recognizing its legitimate rights and demands for independence.
Tom Mehager is a left-wing activist who served time for refusing to serve at an army checkpoint in the Ramallah area.